With a favorable macro environment, the zinc price center edged up [SMM Morning Meeting Minutes]

Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes for December 29

Futures: LME zinc was closed last Friday due to the Christmas holiday. The most-traded SHFE zinc 2602 contract opened at 23,105 yuan/mt last Friday. Initially, SHFE zinc fluctuated around the daily average line. Towards the end of the session, bulls increased their positions, pushing SHFE zinc to quickly rally and touch a high of 23,300 yuan/mt. Subsequently, bulls took profits and exited, resulting in a "V"-shaped reversal for SHFE zinc. It finally closed up at 23,215 yuan/mt, an increase of 85 yuan/mt, or 0.37%. Trading volume decreased to 94,545 lots, while open interest increased by 1,920 lots to 99,345 lots.

Macro: CME Group raised performance bonds for all metal varieties across the board; Before the "Tehran Meeting," Trump spoke with Putin first, key territorial issues between Russia and Ukraine remain unresolved; Thailand and Cambodia signed a joint statement on a ceasefire; Japan's cabinet approved the largest budget in history; Ministry of Finance clarified next year's proactive fiscal policy, the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund launched; China's ETF scale exceeded 6 trillion yuan for the first time in history; Cross-company integrated domestic and foreign currency capital pool business promoted nationwide.

Spot Market:

Shanghai: The purchase willingness for refined zinc in the Shanghai region was 2.19, while the shipment sentiment was 2.53. Last Friday, most traders in the Shanghai market were on break, zinc ingot shipments in the market were limited, and overall spot premiums remained stable. However, downstream purchase willingness was also weak, leading to relatively sluggish spot trades last Friday.

Guangdong: The purchase willingness for refined zinc in the Guangdong region was 2.01, while the sales sentiment was 2.59. Overall, zinc prices edged higher last Friday, downstream procurement enthusiasm declined, and wait-and-see sentiment was relatively strong. Trading among traders was more active. Although some brands offered higher quotes, market transactions were limited, and spot premiums/discounts saw a slight decline.

Tianjin: The purchase willingness for refined zinc in the Tianjin region was 1.93, while the shipment sentiment was 2.12. Last Friday, the price center for zinc shifted upwards, downstream users were cautious about purchasing at high levels, and environmental protection alerts in the north resumed starting at 12 p.m., leading to weakening demand. Meanwhile, most traders were engaged in year-end settlements, resulting in fewer traders shipping goods in the market. Overall market transactions were sluggish.

Ningbo: As it was year-end, most traders in the Ningbo market were on break last Friday. There were almost no shipment quotes in Ningbo. Although some zinc ingots were procured from Shanghai to the Ningbo market, downstream purchase activity was not enthusiastic at year-end. The sluggish atmosphere in the Ningbo market continued last Friday. Social Inventory: LME zinc inventory increased by 7,900 mt to 106,875 mt on December 23, a rise of 7.98%. According to SMM communication, domestic inventory decreased as of December 25.

Zinc Price Outlook: Last Friday, SHFE zinc formed a bullish candlestick, with support provided by the middle Bollinger Band. China's Fiscal Work Conference: Ensure necessary expenditure intensity in 2026, vigorously boost consumption, and actively expand effective investment. Macro sentiment is relatively positive, metals such as copper and silver hit new highs again, and the zinc price center edged up slightly.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.